广西防城港沿海6·16特大暴雨成因及机制探讨          下载免费PDF全文

陈绍河  郑凤琴  蔡悦幸  赵胜男  唐盛 《热带气象学报》2023,(4):433-442

利用NCEP FNL 1 °×1 °再分析、地面观测、FY-2G卫星和多普勒天气雷达等资料,对广西防城港沿海地区2020年6月16日出现的特大暴雨过程进行成因分析以及触发维持机制探讨。(1) 此次极端降雨过程是一次暖区暴雨过程,降雨过程主要分为两个阶段,具有局地性强,雨势猛,强度大,降水难预报和突发性等特点。(2) 暴雨在弱环流背景条件下发生,暴雨区有深厚的水汽和较强的不稳定能量,但天气尺度系统上升运动不深厚强度也不强,因而预报难度大。(3) 初始对流在防城港南部近海海面触发,靠近海岸线时迅速发展加强,在防城港沿海地区演变成一个较大尺度的MβCS,其西侧和南侧出现一连串强度45～55 dBZ γ中尺度对流系统,不断经过暴雨区上空,形成列车效应最终导致极端降雨的发生。(4) 天气尺度背景为北部湾近海海面出现对流提供了有利条件,低空急流的显著加强触发防城港市近海海面初始对流生成;不同性质下垫面的热力差异和MβCS冷池出流造成防城港沿海地区出现中尺度低压及中尺度辐合线,致使对流在防城港沿海地区增强和长时间维持。(5) 高温高湿环境中尺度扰动可能处于暖湿不稳定层结,微小的扰动也可以触发对流;预报服务中要利用多种新型高时空分辨率观测资料,及时判断分析沿海地区是否会出现海陆风或冷池出流等形成中尺度低压或辐合线。  相似文献   

Post-seismic relaxation and earthquake triggering in the southern Adriatic region   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marcello Viti  Francesca D'Onza  Enzo Mantovani  Dario Albarello  Nicola Cenni 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,153(3):645-657

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Fault interactions and subduction tectonics: a re-examination of the Weber, New Zealand, earthquake sequence of 1990     

Russell Robinson 《Geophysical Journal International》2003,154(3):745-753

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Earthquake triggering and delaying caused by fault interaction on Xianshuihe fault belt,southwestern China     

张秋文  张培震  王乘  汪一鹏  Michael A Ellis 《地震学报(英文版)》2003,16(2):156-165

The coseismic Coulomb stress change caused by fault interaction and its influences on the triggering and delaying of earthquake are briefly discussed.The Xianshuihe fault belt consists of Luhuo,Daofu,Kangding,Qianning and Ganzi fault.Luohuo(Ms=7.6,1973)-Kangding(Ms=6.2,1975)-Daofu(Ms=6.9,1981)-Ms=6.0,1982)earthquake is a seismic sequence continuous on the time axis with magnitude greater than6.0.They occurred on the Luhuo.Kangding,Daofu and Ganzi fault,respectively.The coseismic Coulomb stress changes caused by each earthquake on its surrounding major faults and microcracks are calculated,and their effects on the triggering and delaying of the next earthquake and aftershocks are analyzed.It is shown that each earthquake of the sequence occurred on the fault segment with coseismic Coulomb stress increases caused by its predecessors,and most after-shocks are distributed along the microcracks with relatively larger coseismic Coulomb stress increases resulted from the main shock.With the fault interaction considered,the seismic potential of each segment along Xianshuihe fault belt is reassessed,and contrasted with those predicted results ignoring coseismic Coulomb stress change,the significance of fault interaction and its effect on triggering and delaying of earthquake are emphasized.It is con-cluded that fault interaction plays a very important role on seismic potential of Xianshuihe fault belt,and the maximal change of future earthquake probability on fault segment is up to 30.5%.  相似文献   

地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验   总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19  

万永革  吴忠良  周公威  黄静  秦立新 《地震学报》2002,24(3):302-316

运用1976～2000年哈佛大学矩心矩张量目录，采用地震对概念对地震静态应力触发模型进行检验．结果表明，从全球角度来看，地震静态应力触发效应确实存在，但只是一种很弱的效应．将地震分为正断层、逆断层、走滑断层等分别对静态应力触发模型进行检验，发现非走滑断层地震具有明显的触发效应，而走滑断层地震触发效应则不明显．按地震对中后续事件的延迟时间分为延迟时间t1天、t＜１天、t10天、t＜10天和1天 t10天5个时间段的地震对，分别对地震静态应力触发模型进行研究，发现静态应力触发效应在地震之后的短时间内不随延迟时间的变化而变化．对全球不同区域的地震静态应力触发情况的研究表明，消减带地震对的触发效应较为明显．为了研究地震静态应力触发模型在中国应用的可能性，对中国及邻区的地震进行了检验，发现就中国及邻区的地震类型而言（以走滑断层为主），不容易观测到地震静态应力触发现象．   相似文献   

Earthquake Triggering along the Xianshuihe Fault Zone of Western Sichuan,China   总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19  

Eleftheria?PapadimitriouEmail author  Xueze?Wen  Vassilios?Karakostas  Xueshen?Jin 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(8):1683-1707

Western Sichuan is among the most seismically active regions in southwestern China and is characterized by frequent strong (M 6.5) earthquakes, mainly along the Xianshuihe fault zone. Historical and instrumental seismicity show a temporal pattern of active periods separated by inactive ones, while in space a remarkable epicenter migration has been observed. During the last active period starting in 1893, the sinistral strike–slip Xianshuihe fault of 350 km total length, was entirely broken with the epicenters of successive strong earthquakes migrating along its strike. This pattern is investigated by resolving changes of Coulomb failure function (CFF) since 1893 and hence the evolution of the stress field in the area during the last 110 years. Coulomb stress changes were calculated assuming that earthquakes can be modeled as static dislocations in an elastic halfspace, and taking into account both the coseismic slip in strong (M 6.5) earthquakes and the slow tectonic stress buildup associated with major fault segments. The stress change calculations were performed for faults of strike, dip, and rake appropriate to the strong events. We evaluate whether these stress changes brought a given strong earthquake closer to, or sent it farther from, failure. It was found that all strong earthquakes, and moreover, the majority of smaller events for which reliable fault plane solutions are available, have occurred on stress–enhanced fault segments providing a convincing case in which Coulomb stress modeling gives insight into the temporal and spatial manifestation of seismic activity. We extend the stress calculations to the year 2025 and provide an assessment for future seismic hazard by identifying the fault segments that are possible sites of future strong earthquakes.  相似文献   

Landslide incidence zonation in the Rio Mendoza valley,Mendoza Province,Argentina     

Stella M. Moreiras 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2004,29(2):255-266

This paper presents a landslide incidence zonation map showing the percentage of underlying material involved in mass‐movement processes in the Rio Mendoza valley, Argentina. The landslide incidence zonation map was derived from an inventory map of landslides and reveals that many areas of the Rio Mendoza valley are implicated in this kind of process. A correlation has been found between the occurrence of landslides, earthquakes, and rainfall. The relation between lithology and landslides is clear: areas covered by friable sedimentary and volcanic rocks of the Choiyoi Group are prone to debris ?ows and complex landslides. The slope map has been ranked and a general relation between slope and type of event is shown. Falls commonly develop in high‐angle slopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

万永革沈正康  曾跃华盛书中 《地震学报(英文版)》2007,20(2):117-132

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the north-eastern Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau since 1920.Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be drivenby dislocations of large earthquakes(M≥7.0)and secular tectonic loading.The earthquake rupture parameters suchas the fault rupture length,width,and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their sta-tistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments.Our study shows that among 20 largeearthquakes(M≥7.0)investigated,17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive,with atriggering rate of 85%.This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation oflarge earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.  相似文献   

Ms 8.7印尼地震面波在云南产生的远场动态即刻触发特征          下载免费PDF全文

解朝娣  吴小平  何家斌  付虹  杨周胜 《地球物理学进展》2007,22(2):383-394

通过云南区域数字测震台网对2004年12月26日Ms 8.7印尼大震的波形记录，着重考查了大地震面波在到达云南26个台站后的1小时传播过程中对云南及周边地区产生的远场动态触发效应，发现在面波作用的短短1小时内，云南的西部地区有明显的地震即刻触发现象，并对这些现象的特征及其相关因素进行了讨论.  相似文献   

完全库仑破裂应力变化与云南龙陵震群序列的应力触发   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

吴小平  付虹  Michel Bouchon  胡家富  胡毅力  黄雍  虎雄林  解朝娣 《地球物理学报》2007,50(4):1111-1122

计算和研究了1976年云南龙陵Ms73、Ms74双主震产生的完全库仑破裂应力变化及其对后续震群序列的动态和静态应力触发作用.结果显示，龙陵第2主震受到了第1主震的动态和静态库仑破裂应力的触发作用.龙陵双主震的13个后续强余震中，发生在龙陵三角形块体内部的强余震，90%都受到了第1或第2主震的动态库仑破裂应力触发或静态库仑破裂应力触发作用，发生在三角形块体外部的强余震，2/3受到了第2主震的动态库仑破裂应力触发作用.从触发作用的强度和范围上看，第2主震的动态和静态库仑破裂应力触发作用都大于第1主震.就近场而言，受到龙陵双主震的动态和静态库仑破裂应力触发作用的余震数目相当，但动态库仑破裂应力的触发作用范围大于静态库仑破裂应力.  相似文献